2/16 Bracketology

MIDWEST

1. Kentucky
16. New Mexico State/Texas Southern

8. Michigan State
9. Texas

4. Baylor
13. Iona

5. Butler
12. Wofford

2. Wisconsin
15. Florida Gulf Coast

7. Oklahoma State
10. Cincinnati

3. Notre Dame
14. UC Davis

6. Arkansas
11. Stanford

WEST

1. Villanova
16. Louisiana-Monroe

8. Dayton
9. Colorado State

4. North Carolina
13. Murray State

5. Virginia Commonwealth
12. Valpo

2. Gonzaga
15. High Point

7. Ohio State
10. Ole Miss

3. Iowa State
14. Sam Houston State

6. Indiana
11. Pittsburgh/Tulsa

EAST

1. Virginia
16. Bucknell/Saint Francis (NY)

8. San Diego State
9. Temple

4. Oklahoma
13. Eastern Washington

5. Wichita State
12. Harvard

2. Kansas
15. North Carolina Central

7. SMU
10. LSU

3. Louisville
14. South Dakota State

6. West Virginia
11. Iowa

SOUTH

1. Duke
16. Albany

8. Georgia
9. St. John's

4. Utah
13. Louisiana Tech

5. Providence
12. North Carolina State/UCLA

2. Arizona
15. William and Mary

7. Georgetown
10. Illinois

3. Maryland
14. Bowling Green

6. Northern Iowa
11. Xavier

Last 4 in: North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Tulsa, UCLA
First 4 out: Texas A&M, BYU, Boise State, Purdue
Next 4 out: UMass, Miami (FL), Old Dominion, Wyoming

Teams in BOLD are conference leaders (projected auto-bids)

2/3 Bracketology

MIDWEST

1. Kentucky

16. Albany/Texas Southern

8. Dayton

9. Colorado State

4. Butler

13. Stephen F. Austin

5. Utah

12. Wofford

2. Wisconsin

15. Georgia Southern

7. SMU

10. Stanford

3. Maryland

14. North Carolina Central

6. Georgetown

11. Old Dominion

WEST

1. Kansas

16. Sacramento State

8. San Diego State

9. Georgia

4. Virginia Commonwealth

13. Iona

5. West Virginia

12. Iowa/Tennessee 

2. Gonzaga

15. South Dakota State

7. Northern Iowa

10. Michigan State

3. Louisville

14. High Point

6. Arkansas

11. Tulsa

EAST

1. Duke

16. Bucknell/Saint Francis (NY)

8. Seton Hall

9. Oklahoma State

4. Wichita State

13. Murray State

5. Providence

12. Green Bay

2. Villanova

15. Florida Gulf Coast

7. Texas 

10. North Carolina State

3. North Carolina

14. UC Davis

6. Oklahoma

11. Davidson

SOUTH

1. Virginia

16. New Mexico State

8. Cincinnati

9. LSU

4. Notre Dame

13. Louisiana Tech

5. Baylor

12. Yale

2. Arizona

15. Kent State

7. Ohio State

10. Xavier

3. Iowa State

14. William and Mary 

6. Indiana

11. Texas A&M/St. John's

Last 4 in: Texas A&M, Iowa, Tennessee, St. John's

First 4 out: Ole Miss, George Washington, Miami (FL), Wyoming

Next 4 out: Boise State, Pittsburgh, BYU,  Temple 

Teams in bold are conference leaders (auto bids).

1/26 Bracketology

MIDWEST

1. Kentucky
16. Bucknell/Texas Southern

8. San Diego State
9. Georgia

4. Notre Dame
13. Yale

5. Butler
12. Wofford

2. Wisconsin
15. South Dakota State

7. Oklahoma
10. Xavier

3. North Carolina
14. UC Davis

6. Baylor
11. Colorado State

WEST

1. Kansas
16. New Mexico State

8. Northern Iowa
9. Oklahoma State

4. Utah
13. Iona

5. Georgetown
12. Green Bay

2. Gonzaga
15. Kent State

7. Dayton
10. Seton Hall

3. Iowa State
14. Northeastern

6. Providence
11. Washington/St. John's

EAST

1. Virginia
16. North Florida/Saint Francis (NY)

8. SMU
9. Michigan State

4. West Virginia
13. Stephen F. Austin

5. Louisville
12. Wyoming

2. Villanova
15. Georgia Southern

7. Cincinnati
10. Miami (FL)

3. Virginia Commonwealth
14. North Carolina Central

6. Indiana
11. Tulsa

SOUTH

1. Duke
16. Albany

8. Stanford
9. Ohio State

4. Wichita State
13. Murray State

5. Arkansas
12. Western Kentucky

2. Arizona
15. Sacramento State

7. LSU
10. Iowa

3. Maryland
14. High Point

6. Texas
11. Old Dominion/Davidson

Last 4 in: St. John's, Old Dominion, Washington, Davidson
First 4 out: NC State, Tennessee, George Washington, Texas A&M
Next 4 out: Ole Miss, Syracuse, UConn, Alabama

Teams in bold are conference leaders (auto-bids)

1/21 Bracketology

MIDWEST

1. Kentucky

16. Mercer/Texas Southern

8. Indiana

9. Oklahoma State

4. Wichita State

13. Buffalo

5. Louisville

12. Tulsa

2. Wisconsin

15. Louisiana-Monroe

7. San Diego State

10. SMU

3. Maryland

14. High Point

6. Texas

11. Georgia

WEST

1. Duke

16. Albany

8. Old Dominion

9. Iowa

4. Utah

13. Iona

5. Notre Dame

12. Harvard

2. Gonzaga

15. Sacramento State

7. Arkansas

10. Ohio State

3. Virginia Commonwealth

14. Eastern Illinois

6. Baylor

11. St. John’s/Tennessee

EAST

1. Virginia

16. Colgate/Seattle

8. Northern Iowa

9. North Carolina State

4. West Virginia

13. North Carolina Central

5. Butler

12. Eastern Washington

2. Kansas

15. St. Francis (NY)

7. Dayton

10. Xavier

3. North Carolina

14. Sam Houston State

6. Seton Hall

11. George Washington

SOUTH

1. Villanova

16. North Florida

8. Michigan State

9. Cincinnati

4. Oklahoma

13. Valpo

5. Georgetown

12. Louisiana Tech

2. Arizona

15. North Dakota State

7. Stanford

10. LSU

3. Iowa State

14. Northeastern

6. Providence

11. Syracuse/Washington

Last 4 in: St. John's, Washington, Syracuse, Tennessee

First 4 out: Wyoming, Colorado State, Miami (FL), Alabama

Next 4 out: Temple, BYU, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Teams in BOLD are auto-bids (conference leaders)

Looking at interesting non-conference profiles

I'm still about a month away from putting out my first bracket of the season, but I figured it'd be a good time to look at some intriguing non-conference profiles from the first half of the season. Most of college basketball is either finished with their non-conference slate or nearly finished.

TCU

The Frogs finished their OOC (out-of-conference, for those not familiar with the acronym) schedule unscathed after beating Tennessee Tech last night. Major props to Trent Johnson and his staff, as they've already come close to doubling their win total from 2013-2014. However, their schedule is incredibly weak. Ken Pomeroy's rating has them dead last in his SOS rating (link) and their RPI SOS is also very low at #321 (keep in mind there are 351 D1 teams). Their best win thus far is a road win against Ole Miss. Luckily for TCU, they play in the Big 12, which may be college basketball's top league this season. They will have many chances for quality wins and their SOS will certainly improve as they move through their conference schedule. That being said, if they are on the bubble come March, their very weak OOC schedule may come back to hurt them (similar to what happened last year to another DFW area private school, SMU).

Northern Iowa

Northern Iowa is nationally relevant again after a few down years. The Panthers finished their OOC schedule with a record of 11-1. Their schedule is pretty average, with only three games against KenPom top 100 teams (but only two games against KenPom sub 200 teams). UNI's best win to date is a neutral site game against in-state foe, Iowa. They had a golden opportunity to get a signature win at VCU but lost a great game in double overtime. The computers like this team (#11 in RPI, #26 in KenPom) but as of now, they lack quality wins. They'll get two shots at Wichita State during MVC play, which could be a great chance at getting another win for their tournament resume (assuming the Shockers continue their stellar play). But the MVC is pretty weak aside from UNI and WSU, so they'll have to avoid bad losses against sub 200 opponents. I could see this team finishing with 27-28 wins (this includes the conference tourney) but end up in the 8/9 game when March arrives due to a lack of "good wins". 

Old Dominion

Jeff Jones has quickly resurrected the Monarchs' program after a recent rough patch. ODU is 11-1 after finishing their non-conference slate with a blowout win over Mount St. Mary's. The RPI has this team at #13, while the KenPom rating isn't quite as impressed, ranking them at #53. Still, Old Dominion has put together a impressive resume through their first two months of play. It includes wins over VCU (home), LSU (neutral), and Georgia State (home). That's three wins over RPI top 50 teams (but only 1 KenPom top 50 win). Unfortunately, CUSA won't provide many more chances for quality wins as the Monarchs only play two games against KenPom top 100 teams in conference play (UTEP and LaTech). Like Northern Iowa, they'll have to avoid bad losses to sub 200 teams on a regular basis (bottom of CUSA is very weak). They are in good position right now but they may not be able to afford five or six losses in conference play. 

Green Bay

UW-Green Bay was an interesting case on Selection Sunday last year, and they could be again in 2015 if they don't win the Horizon League tournament.  Last year, their main case to be included in the tourney was a home win against Virginia. Ultimately, they were left out and played in the NIT. This year's team doesn't have that signature win, as they were blown out by Wisconsin in November (a win could have provided the equivalent to the win against UVA last year). They do have a road win at Miami and split a home/home with Georgia State, which isn't terrible. However, if they want to be considered for a possible at-large, they may have to go 15-1 or 16-0 in Horizon League play. Of course, if they win the conference tourney, this won't even be a conversation. 

Plenty of other teams I could have gotten to (Penn State, Georgia State, Alabama, Yale) in this post but I'll stop with these four. Again, my first bracket should be up in January (and how about my final bracket last year finishing top 3 in the Bracket Matrix!). I may do a post sometime in early to mid January recapping the first few weeks of conference play throughout the country. 

3/16 Bracketology (Final)

Final bracket of 2014....

SOUTH

1. Florida

16. Cal Poly/Coastal Carolina

8. Colorado

9. Pittsburgh

4. San Diego State

13. Manhattan

5. Ohio State

12. North Dakota State

2. Villanova

15. UW-Milwaukee

7. Baylor

10. Iowa

3. Syracuse

14. Mercer

6. Texas

11. SMU

EAST

1. Michigan

16. Albany

8. Kansas State

9. Stanford

4. Cincy

13. Tulsa

5. North Carolina

12. BYU/Tennessee

2. Virginia

15. American

7. Virginia Commonwealth

10. Arizona State

3. Iowa State

14. New Mexico State

6. UMass

11. Providence 

WEST

1. Arizona

16. Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern 

8. Memphis

9. George Washington

4. Michigan State

13. Delaware

5. UCLA

12. Harvard

2. Kansas

15. NC Central

7. New Mexico 

10. St. Joe's

3. Creighton

14. Eastern Kentucky

6. Kentucky

11. Xavier

MIDWEST

1. Wichita State

16. Weber State

8. Oregon

9. Oklahoma State

4. Louisville

13. Western Michigan

5. Oklahoma

12. Stephen F. Austin

2. Wisconsin

15. Wofford

7. Saint Louis

10. Gonzaga

3. Duke

14. UL-Lafayette

6. UConn

11. Dayton/Nebraska

Last 4 in: Nebraska, Dayton, Tennessee, BYU

First 4 out: California, Florida State, NC State, Southern Miss

Next 4 out: UW-Green Bay, Louisiana Tech, Arkansas, Minnesota

Teams in BOLDED BLACK have clinched an auto bid by winning their conference tourney (or in Harvard's case, their regular season title)

3/15 Bracketology

2nd to last bracket of the year....

SOUTH

1. Florida
16. Cal Poly/Coastal Carolina

8. Colorado
9. Pittsburgh

4. San Diego State
13. Manhattan

5. Ohio State
12. North Dakota State

2. Villanova
15. UW-Milwaukee

7. Baylor
10. Iowa

3. Syracuse
14. Mercer

6. Texas
11. SMU

EAST

1. Michigan
16. Albany

8. Kansas State
9. Stanford

4. Cincy
13. Tulsa

5. North Carolina
12. BYU/Tennessee

2. Virginia
15. American

7. Virginia Commonwealth
10. Arizona State

3. Iowa State
14. New Mexico State

6. UMass
11. Providence 

WEST

1. Arizona
16. Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern 

8. Memphis
9. George Washington

4. Michigan State
13. Delaware

5. UCLA
12. Harvard

2. Kansas
15. NC Central

7. New Mexico 
10. St. Joe's

3. Creighton
14. Eastern Kentucky

6. Kentucky
11. Xavier

MIDWEST

1. Wichita State
16. Weber State

8. Oregon
9. Oklahoma State

4. Louisville
13. Western Michigan

5. Oklahoma
12. Stephen F. Austin

2. Wisconsin
15. Wofford

7. Saint Louis
10. Gonzaga

3. Duke
14. Georgia State

6. UConn
11. Dayton/Nebraska

Last 4 in: Nebraska, Dayton, Tennessee, BYU
First 4 out: California, Florida State, NC State, Southern Miss
Next 4 out: UW-Green Bay, Louisiana Tech, Arkansas, Minnesota

Teams in BOLDED BLACK have already clinched an auto bid by winning their conference tourney (or in Harvard's case, their regular season title)

Teams in BOLDED BLUE are currently the top seed remaining in their conference tourney